Predictions are useful for planning and preparing for future events. The Danish bank has highlighted ten events that could turn the game around in the market in 2021. Among these events, blockchain and other technologies that will change the world are mentioned a lot.
2020 was a turbulent year. To outline what to expect next year, The Danish Saxo Bank
published traditional Outrageous Predictions for 2021. Last year the investment bank predicted the defeat of Donald Trump in the US presidential election and the dollar weakening. Next year, the investment bank expects a series of corporate defaults and an overheated economy due to the large volume of state support programs and anti-crisis loans. Outrageous Predictions are published on the official website of the bank.
Unexpected Events to Expect
The Saxo Bank issues lists of Outrageous Predictions for the 18th time. They attract the investors' concern to extraordinary events - "black swans" - which can have a significant impact on the market. The COVID-19 pandemic and the turbulent course of the U.S. election made the distant future not so distant, boosting social and technical global trends.
According to Outrageous Predictions of Saxo Bank, the next year can introduce an invention in nuclear energy that will provide the world with cheap electricity, the devastation of cities due to the popularization of remote jobs, and the removal of fake news by blockchain technology.
Blockchain Destroys Fake News
The main goal of a journalistic business is objectivity. However, the pursuit of high ratings, the thirst for sensations and hype cause the media to corrupt into the means of disinformation. With a strong engine for managing public opinion, the media have become one of the central weapons of information wars. And with the ubiquitous appearance of the Internet and new technologies, the dissemination of information and ways of manipulating it has reached a new level.
In 2021, the growing threat of misinformation and loss of trust in even the established media will reach a critical point, predicts Saxo Bank Senior Quantitative Analyst Anders Nissen. It will require retaliation from the industry, including from major media companies and social platforms. Twitter and Facebook are investing heavily in blockchain technology.
Due to the technology
, any changes in content in the news will be immediately visible, news publication can always be traced to their source. Companies must invest in such technologies being under pressure from the authorities.
When blockchain comes into play, any information created on the network is available for verification to all its users
, and third parties cannot control it or change it. All data in the blockchain is certified by an electronic signature
using stable algorithms, encrypted into the block, and entered the database. If someone decides to hack the blockchain, it will not work.
Already some projects and companies create blockchain-based news platforms. In Italy, blockchain control has begun to be used to verify fake news about the coronavirus. The ANSA
states that whenever an agency publishes a news story, its hash code or digital fingerprint is stored in the blockchain. Once the material is on any other platform, the hash will be authenticated to check whether it corresponds to the original value. "Reality wins, and reproducing pseudo-knowledges lose," the forecast reads.
Blockchain Boosts The Digitization Of Financial Systems
According to Outrageous Predictions, in 2021, China is releasing a digital version of the yuan based on blockchain technology. It will be another stage for China's financial regulator to digitize the Chinese finance sector. As early as 2019, 80% of the country's payments were made through WeChat Pay and AliPay
. Foreigners are also given full access to China's capital markets. The traceability of the blockchain will reduce the risk of capital outflow and internal corruption.Tracking China's capital flows and designing reserve currencies in place of the US dollar will dramatically increase consumption in China, support a new pension system, and expand the country's capital markets.
Although the bank maintains that its forecasts are not repeated, last year one of the forecasts was already in Asia, where a new Asian reserve currency, supported by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and aimed at removing the US dollar from regional trade, could be created.
Technology Future And Abandoned Cities
In addition to the bright forecasts for blockchain, experts of the Danish bank link their predictions with breakthroughs in science made with AI. One of the predictions for 2021 is AI will develop seawater desalination technologies, and over time the world will be able to solve the problem of fresh water and food shortages.
Technology will turn the lives of cities upside down and desolate them. The development of drones and flying vehicles will revolutionize the delivery of goods, reducing the cost of living away from megacities. Drones will also increase labor efficiency in agriculture, which will also boost developing economies.
The Bank traditionally states that Outrageous Predictions are not the strong binding prediction. The main goal of the publishing is to warn the investors not to underestimate the forecasted events. Now that the coronavirus has shattered all plans and forced states, corporations, and ordinary people to go into debt, many situations may turn out to be real. Nevertheless, the most devastating and outrageous events are the most unforeseen.